Source code for econml.inference._bootstrap

# Copyright (c) Microsoft Corporation. All rights reserved.
# Licensed under the MIT License.

"""Bootstrap sampling."""
import numpy as np
from joblib import Parallel, delayed
from sklearn.base import clone
from scipy.stats import norm
from collections import OrderedDict
import pandas as pd


[docs]class BootstrapEstimator: """Estimator that uses bootstrap sampling to wrap an existing estimator. This estimator provides a `fit` method with the same signature as the wrapped estimator. The bootstrap estimator will also wrap all other methods and attributes of the wrapped estimator, but return the average of the sampled calculations (this will fail for non-numeric outputs). It will also provide a wrapper method suffixed with `_interval` for each method or attribute of the wrapped estimator that takes two additional optional keyword arguments `lower` and `upper` specifiying the percentiles of the interval, and which uses `np.percentile` to return the corresponding lower and upper bounds based on the sampled calculations. For example, if the underlying estimator supports an `effect` method with signature `(X,T) -> Y`, this class will provide a method `effect_interval` with pseudo-signature `(lower=5, upper=95, X, T) -> (Y, Y)` (where `lower` and `upper` cannot be supplied as positional arguments). Parameters ---------- wrapped : object The basis for the clones used for estimation. This object must support a `fit` method which takes numpy arrays with consistent first dimensions as arguments. n_bootstrap_samples : int, default: 100 How many draws to perform. n_jobs: int, default: None The maximum number of concurrently running jobs, as in joblib.Parallel. verbose: int, default: 0 Verbosity level compute_means : bool, default: True Whether to pass calls through to the underlying collection and return the mean. Setting this to ``False`` can avoid ambiguities if the wrapped object itself has method names with an `_interval` suffix. bootstrap_type: 'percentile', 'pivot', or 'normal', default 'pivot' Bootstrap method used to compute results. 'percentile' will result in using the empiracal CDF of the replicated computations of the statistics. 'pivot' will also use the replicates but create a pivot interval that also relies on the estimate over the entire dataset. 'normal' will instead compute an interval assuming the replicates are normally distributed. """ def __init__(self, wrapped, n_bootstrap_samples=100, n_jobs=None, verbose=0, compute_means=True, bootstrap_type='pivot'): self._instances = [clone(wrapped, safe=False) for _ in range(n_bootstrap_samples)] self._n_bootstrap_samples = n_bootstrap_samples self._n_jobs = n_jobs self._verbose = verbose self._compute_means = compute_means self._bootstrap_type = bootstrap_type self._wrapped = wrapped # TODO: Add a __dir__ implementation? @staticmethod def __stratified_indices(arr): assert 1 <= np.ndim(arr) <= 2 unique = np.unique(arr, axis=0) indices = [] for el in unique: ind, = np.where(np.all(arr == el, axis=1) if np.ndim(arr) == 2 else arr == el) indices.append(ind) return indices
[docs] def fit(self, *args, **named_args): """ Fit the model. The full signature of this method is the same as that of the wrapped object's `fit` method. """ from .._cate_estimator import BaseCateEstimator # need to nest this here to avoid circular import index_chunks = None if isinstance(self._instances[0], BaseCateEstimator): index_chunks = self._instances[0]._strata(*args, **named_args) if index_chunks is not None: index_chunks = self.__stratified_indices(index_chunks) if index_chunks is None: n_samples = np.shape(args[0] if args else named_args[(*named_args,)[0]])[0] index_chunks = [np.arange(n_samples)] # one chunk with all indices indices = [] for chunk in index_chunks: n_samples = len(chunk) indices.append(chunk[np.random.choice(n_samples, size=(self._n_bootstrap_samples, n_samples), replace=True)]) indices = np.hstack(indices) def fit(x, *args, **kwargs): x.fit(*args, **kwargs) return x # Explicitly return x in case fit fails to return its target def convertArg(arg, inds): if arg is None: return None arr = np.asarray(arg) if arr.ndim > 0: return arr[inds] else: # arg was a scalar, so we shouldn't have converted it return arg self._instances = Parallel(n_jobs=self._n_jobs, prefer='threads', verbose=self._verbose)( delayed(fit)(obj, *[convertArg(arg, inds) for arg in args], **{arg: convertArg(named_args[arg], inds) for arg in named_args}) for obj, inds in zip(self._instances, indices) ) return self
def __getattr__(self, name): """ Get proxy attribute that wraps the corresponding attribute with the same name from the wrapped object. Additionally, the suffix "_interval" is supported for getting an interval instead of a point estimate. """ # don't proxy special methods if name.startswith('__'): raise AttributeError(name) def proxy(make_call, name, summary): def summarize_with(f): results = np.array(Parallel(n_jobs=self._n_jobs, prefer='threads', verbose=self._verbose)( (f, (obj, name), {}) for obj in self._instances)), f(self._wrapped, name) return summary(*results) if make_call: def call(*args, **kwargs): return summarize_with(lambda obj, name: getattr(obj, name)(*args, **kwargs)) return call else: return summarize_with(lambda obj, name: getattr(obj, name)) def get_mean(): # for attributes that exist on the wrapped object, just compute the mean of the wrapped calls return proxy(callable(getattr(self._instances[0], name)), name, lambda arr, _: np.mean(arr, axis=0)) def get_std(): prefix = name[: - len('_std')] return proxy(callable(getattr(self._instances[0], prefix)), prefix, lambda arr, _: np.std(arr, axis=0)) def get_interval(): # if the attribute exists on the wrapped object once we remove the suffix, # then we should be computing a confidence interval for the wrapped calls prefix = name[: - len("_interval")] def call_with_bounds(can_call, lower, upper): def percentile_bootstrap(arr, _): return np.percentile(arr, lower, axis=0), np.percentile(arr, upper, axis=0) def pivot_bootstrap(arr, est): return 2 * est - np.percentile(arr, upper, axis=0), 2 * est - np.percentile(arr, lower, axis=0) def normal_bootstrap(arr, est): std = np.std(arr, axis=0) return est - norm.ppf(upper / 100) * std, est - norm.ppf(lower / 100) * std # TODO: studentized bootstrap? this would be more accurate in most cases but can we avoid # second level bootstrap which would be prohibitive computationally? fn = {'percentile': percentile_bootstrap, 'normal': normal_bootstrap, 'pivot': pivot_bootstrap}[self._bootstrap_type] return proxy(can_call, prefix, fn) can_call = callable(getattr(self._instances[0], prefix)) if can_call: # collect extra arguments and pass them through, if the wrapped attribute was callable def call(*args, lower=5, upper=95, **kwargs): return call_with_bounds(can_call, lower, upper)(*args, **kwargs) return call else: # don't pass extra arguments if the wrapped attribute wasn't callable to begin with def call(lower=5, upper=95): return call_with_bounds(can_call, lower, upper) return call def get_inference(): # can't import from econml.inference at top level without creating cyclical dependencies from ._inference import EmpiricalInferenceResults, NormalInferenceResults from .._cate_estimator import LinearModelFinalCateEstimatorDiscreteMixin prefix = name[: - len("_inference")] def fname_transformer(x): return x if prefix in ['const_marginal_effect', 'marginal_effect', 'effect']: inf_type = 'effect' elif prefix == 'coef_': inf_type = 'coefficient' if (hasattr(self._instances[0], 'cate_feature_names') and callable(self._instances[0].cate_feature_names)): def fname_transformer(x): return self._instances[0].cate_feature_names(x) elif prefix == 'intercept_': inf_type = 'intercept' else: raise AttributeError("Unsupported inference: " + name) d_t = self._wrapped._d_t[0] if self._wrapped._d_t else 1 if prefix == 'effect' or (isinstance(self._wrapped, LinearModelFinalCateEstimatorDiscreteMixin) and (inf_type == 'coefficient' or inf_type == 'intercept')): d_t = None d_y = self._wrapped._d_y[0] if self._wrapped._d_y else 1 can_call = callable(getattr(self._instances[0], prefix)) kind = self._bootstrap_type if kind == 'percentile' or kind == 'pivot': def get_dist(est, arr): if kind == 'percentile': return arr elif kind == 'pivot': return 2 * est - arr else: raise ValueError("Invalid kind, must be either 'percentile' or 'pivot'") def get_result(): return proxy(can_call, prefix, lambda arr, est: EmpiricalInferenceResults( d_t=d_t, d_y=d_y, pred=est, pred_dist=get_dist(est, arr), inf_type=inf_type, fname_transformer=fname_transformer, feature_names=self._wrapped.cate_feature_names(), output_names=self._wrapped.cate_output_names(), treatment_names=self._wrapped.cate_treatment_names() )) # Note that inference results are always methods even if the inference is for a property # (e.g. coef__inference() is a method but coef_ is a property) # Therefore we must insert a lambda if getting inference for a non-callable return get_result() if can_call else get_result else: assert kind == 'normal' def normal_inference(*args, **kwargs): pred = getattr(self._wrapped, prefix) if can_call: pred = pred(*args, **kwargs) stderr = getattr(self, prefix + '_std') if can_call: stderr = stderr(*args, **kwargs) return NormalInferenceResults( d_t=d_t, d_y=d_y, pred=pred, pred_stderr=stderr, mean_pred_stderr=None, inf_type=inf_type, fname_transformer=fname_transformer, feature_names=self._wrapped.cate_feature_names(), output_names=self._wrapped.cate_output_names(), treatment_names=self._wrapped.cate_treatment_names()) # If inference is for a property, create a fresh lambda to avoid passing args through return normal_inference if can_call else lambda: normal_inference() caught = None m = None if name.endswith("_interval"): m = get_interval elif name.endswith("_std"): m = get_std elif name.endswith("_inference"): m = get_inference # try to get interval/std first if appropriate, # since we don't prefer a wrapped method with this name if m is not None: try: return m() except AttributeError as err: caught = err if self._compute_means: return get_mean() raise (caught if caught else AttributeError(name))